The impact of tariffs on credit risk

Key Points

1 The impact of tariffs on credit risk is already measurable: 32% of Spanish companies acknowledge that they are suffering the effects of the trade war, according to the 2026 Credit Risk Management Study.

2 11% of companies identify late payment as one of their main concerns, while 9% report difficulties in securing financing.

3 The United States is the sixth-largest destination for Spanish goods exports; bilateral trade represented 4.4% of Spanish GDP in 2024.

4 Even without exporting directly, a company may be affected through suppliers, supply chains or customers exposed to stressed markets.

5 Reviewing Incoterms, trade credit policy, suppliers, cash flow and insurance coverage is essential to anticipate risk.

6 Credit insurance and surety bonds are distinct and complementary tools in response to deteriorating commercial risk.

For Spanish businesses, tariff uncertainty is no longer an issue reserved for international trade departments. Today, it is a risk factor with direct consequences for the day-to-day management of any company, and the impact of tariffs on credit risk is one of its least discussed yet most decisive dimensions.

According to the 2026 Credit Risk Management Study, prepared by Crédito y Caución and Iberinform and published on 16 June 2026, 32% of Spanish companies are already experiencing the effects of the trade war, particularly through increases in the final price of products (16%) and reductions in commercial margins (12%). In addition, 11% identify late payment as one of their main concerns, while 9% report difficulties in obtaining financing.

This scenario is not new. As early as April 2025, another study by Crédito y Caución and Iberinform found that 48% of companies said tariff uncertainty was affecting their daily operations, while 6.5% already expected a deterioration in the credit risk of their trade receivables portfolio. The trend has therefore been present for some time, although it moderated during 2026.

The conclusion is clear: when tariffs increase or regulatory volatility intensifies, the problem is not limited to the price of an international transaction. It can also affect competitiveness, put pressure on cash flow, complicate planning, increase late payment and force companies to review their trade credit and insurance coverage policies.

“In contexts of tariff uncertainty, many companies still analyse the impact solely in terms of cost or margin, when the first mistake is often failing to measure how the risk quality of their customers and their own collection chain is changing,” says Enrique García-Delgado, Credit Director at RibéSalat.

Tariff uncertainty is now part of business risk

Spain maintains relevant exposure to trade with the United States and the global environment. The Bank of Spain notes that the United States is the sixth-largest destination for Spanish goods exports and that, although the direct impact of tariffs on Spain may be lower than in other European economies, indirect exposure through global value chains and services remains significant. In 2024, total trade in goods and services between Spain and the United States represented 4.4% of Spanish GDP.

In addition, the Spanish Chamber of Commerce has warned that certain tariff measures may have significant sector-specific effects. For example, 25% tariffs applied to steel and aluminium from the EU could reduce the value of Spanish exports of those goods to the United States by an average of 10.4%.

Even when a company does not export directly to the United States, it may still be affected if it:

purchases imported raw materials or components,
is part of an international supply chain,
works with customers exposed to stressed markets,
or sells on credit in sectors where costs are rising and profitability is falling.

How tariffs affect a company’s profit and loss account

Procurement costs

When a tariff makes a raw material, component or finished product more expensive, a company must decide whether to pass that cost on to the customer, absorb part of the increase or seek alternative suppliers. None of these three options is neutral.

Commercial margins

Studies analysing credit risk management in Spain consistently show that one of the most immediate effects of tariff uncertainty is margin compression, either because costs rise or because companies avoid passing the full increase on to the market in order not to lose share.

Competitiveness

In highly price-sensitive markets, a rise in costs can quickly weaken a company’s competitive position. This requires a review of commercial policy, pricing, cost structure and market strategy. In some cases, it may even lead companies to redesign their internationalisation strategy or seek new commercial destinations.

Practical example. An industrial company exporting components may be affected twice over: first, because the cost of certain imported inputs rises; second, because its international customers review orders or payment terms in a lower-visibility environment. This double effect does not only compress profitability: it is another manifestation of the impact of tariffs on credit risk within the customer portfolio, as it also increases the likelihood of non-payment or delayed collection.

The less visible effect: the impact of tariffs on credit risk

One of the main shortcomings in the public debate on tariffs is that it tends to focus on geopolitics or price, when from a business perspective there is another decisive factor: the deterioration of credit risk. This is precisely the impact of tariffs on credit risk that often takes longest to detect: the Crédito y Caución and Iberinform study already indicated in 2025 that 6.5% of companies expected a deterioration in the credit risk of their trade receivables portfolio as a consequence of tariff increases.

When a customer operates with lower margins, higher costs and reduced visibility, its payment capacity may come under pressure. And when this occurs across long chains or closely interconnected sectors, the effect quickly spreads to suppliers, subcontractors and distributors.

“The risk is not only selling less, but selling the same amount, or even more, in an environment where the customer is losing financial strength. That is where trade credit control becomes decisive,” says Enrique García-Delgado, Credit Director at RibéSalat.

This is compounded by pressure on liquidity. If collection periods lengthen, financing conditions worsen or resources are tied up to guarantee transactions, working capital can come under strain. Indeed, recent studies show that part of the Spanish productive fabric remains significantly concerned about late payment and access to finance.

Which companies are most exposed

Not all companies are affected by tariff risk with the same intensity. In general, exposure is higher among three profiles:

1. Exporting or importing sectors with price sensitivity

Industry, agrifood, automotive, metal, capital goods and international distribution are particularly sensitive to tariff-related cost increases and loss of competitiveness.

2. Companies integrated into global supply chains

Even if they do not export directly, many Spanish companies manufacture components or provide services that are ultimately incorporated into goods destined for affected markets. The Bank of Spain specifically highlights this indirect exposure through global value chains.

3. Companies with commercial concentration or credit sales

If a company depends on a small number of customers or markets, or sells with deferred payment terms, an environment of lower profitability and greater uncertainty can amplify the risk of non-payment and the associated financial cost.

What a company should review in an uncertain tariff environment

The business response cannot be limited to “wait and see”. In a context of tariff volatility, companies should review at least these five areas:

1. Contracts and Incoterms

It is essential to verify who bears the tariff cost, which clauses allow prices to be reviewed and which Incoterm is actually determining the economic and operational obligation. In transactions with the United States, for example, the role of importer and the commitments assumed under certain Incoterms may transfer payment or guarantee obligations to the company, affecting liquidity.

2. Trade credit policy

Companies should review customer limits, payment terms, sector concentration and markets where risk is deteriorating. Selling is not enough: companies must sell with control.

3. Supplier and market portfolio

Diversifying suppliers or commercial destinations is not merely a tactical response; it can become a structural measure to reduce dependence and volatility.

4. Treasury and financing needs

Companies should recalculate working capital scenarios, cash pressure and their ability to absorb cost peaks or collection delays.

5. Insurance coverage

Depending on the business model, it may make sense to strengthen credit insurance tools and, in specific cases, surety bond solutions.

The impact of tariffs on credit risk infography

Credit insurance and surety bonds: differences and complementarity

Credit insurance is designed to protect a company against the risk of non-payment on its credit sales. In an environment where tariff uncertainty can weaken the credit quality of the trade receivables portfolio, this tool becomes more relevant because it helps preserve the profit and loss account, cash flow and risk discipline. Understanding our credit insurance service is a first step in assessing whether current coverage should be reinforced.

Surety bonds, by contrast, follow a different logic: they guarantee to a third party that an obligation will be fulfilled. In a tariff context, they can be especially useful in transactions where the company needs to provide guarantees or bonds and wants to avoid tying up additional resources or increasing bank dependency, as various specialised analyses on Spanish importers in the United States explain.

“Surety becomes especially valuable when a company needs to maintain operational capacity and liquidity without overconsuming financial capacity. In uncertain environments, having efficient alternatives to bank guarantees can make a significant difference,” explains Eduardo Santomá, Surety Director at RibéSalat.

What risk does your company need to address?

For this reason, the conversation should not be framed in terms of “which product to buy”, but rather which risk the company needs to address:

if the issue is customer non-payment, we are talking about credit;
if the issue is a guarantee in favour of a third party, we are talking about surety;
and in some cases both solutions can coexist within a broader enterprise protection architecture.

Protect your business in time

The impact of tariffs on credit risk should not be analysed as a temporary news item, but as a warning sign regarding the fragility of certain supply chains, commercial policies and risk structures. Companies that react late often do so when margins have already been eroded, customers have already started delaying payments or cash pressure is already visible. Those that review their commercial, contractual, financial and insurance exposure in advance are better positioned to absorb the impact, protect profitability and sustain growth with greater resilience.

“The best response to an unstable tariff environment is not to improvise once the problem appears, but to build in advance a clear policy for prevention, exposure control and risk transfer,” conclude Eduardo Santomá and Enrique García-Delgado from RibéSalat.

FAQs

Do tariffs only affect exporting companies?

No. They can also affect companies that import raw materials or components, companies integrated into international supply chains and businesses whose customers are exposed to affected markets. Even without exporting directly, a company may face higher costs, lower commercial visibility or a deterioration in the solvency of its customer portfolio.

How do tariffs affect a company’s margins?

The most common impact occurs when the company cannot fully pass the additional cost on to the final price. In that case, it absorbs part of the increase and reduces its margin. If procurement costs also rise or sales fall, profitability pressure intensifies.

Can late payment increase as a result of tariff uncertainty?

Yes. When customers operate under greater financial pressure, lower margins or higher regulatory uncertainty, the likelihood of payment delays or non-payment increases. This forms part of the impact of tariffs on credit risk within a trade receivables portfolio, which is why companies should review not only prices, but also credit quality, collection terms and risk concentration.

What is the difference between credit insurance and surety bonds?

Credit insurance protects a company against customer non-payment on credit sales. Surety bonds, by contrast, guarantee to a third party the fulfilment of an obligation by the policyholder. They are distinct and complementary solutions because they respond to different risks.

What should a company review if it fears being affected by new tariffs?

At a minimum, it should review contracts and Incoterms, cost structure, dependence on specific suppliers or markets, trade credit policy, working capital needs and the map of financial and insurance coverage. The key is to anticipate the issue before it translates into losses or cash pressure.

When does it make sense to consider credit insurance?

It makes sense when a company sells on credit, works with customers in more volatile sectors or markets, concentrates too much exposure in specific accounts or needs to strengthen cash-flow protection in a context of greater uncertainty and potential deterioration in collection risk.

And when can surety bonds be key?

They can be particularly relevant when the company must provide guarantees to public authorities, customers, customs authorities or private counterparties, and wants to avoid putting pressure on its banking capacity or unnecessarily tying up financial resources.

The impact of tariffs on credit risk for Spanish companies